零膨胀模型在散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌定量暴露评估中的应用

食品科学 ›› 0, Vol. ›› Issue (): 0-0.

• 基础研究 • 下一篇

零膨胀模型在散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌定量暴露评估中的应用

孙菀霞¹,金玉琴²,戴颖秀²,肖建伟²,王翔³,董庆利¹

1. 上海理工大学
2. 上海市杨浦区疾病预防控制中心
3. 上海理工大学医疗器械与食品学院

收稿日期:2018-04-29 修回日期:2019-02-13 出版日期:2019-06-15 发布日期:2019-06-28
通讯作者: 董庆利 E-mail:dongqingli@126.com
基金资助:
科技部“十二五”国家科技支撑计划

Application of Zero-inflated Models in Quantitative Exposure Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Bulk Cooked Meat

¹, ¹, ¹, ¹, ¹,DONG Qing-Li

Received:2018-04-29 Revised:2019-02-13 Online:2019-06-15 Published:2019-06-28
Contact: DONG Qing-Li E-mail:dongqingli@126.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌监测数据普遍存在的零膨胀和过度离散现象，探讨不同左删失数据处理方法对定量暴露评估的影响。2017年2~12月从上海市某区各大型超市、农贸市场及餐饮环节采集254份散装熟肉制品进行单增李斯特菌定量检测。检测结果与标准统计分布及其零膨胀模型相结合，利用R 2.0软件进行数据拟合，根据最优分布结果，确定零售阶段散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌的暴露情况。对于单增李斯特菌左删失数据的处理，建议优先构建零膨胀正态分布或零膨胀泊松正态分布。零膨胀模型的参数估计结果表明，约有2%的散装熟肉制品中有单增李斯特菌的定量检出。本结果可为单增李斯特菌左删失数据的处理提供理论依据，并为完整的风险评估体系提供参考。

关键词: 散装熟肉, 单增李斯特菌, 零膨胀模型, 暴露评估

Abstract: In many cases, Listeria monocytogenes contamination level of cooked meat in bulk are characterized by zero-inflated and over-dispersion phenomenon, the influence of different left-censored data processing methods on quantitative exposure assessment was discussed. Contamination of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products determined by 254 samples collected from supermarkets, farmers’ markets and catering links in a district of Shanghai from February to December 2017. As an illustration, traditional statistical distributions and their zero-inflated models were used to assess the concentration of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products. Models were compared and validated in their ability with evaluation parameters by R 2.0 software. L. monocytogenes concentration consisting of a considerable number of left-censored data can be appropriately represented by zero-inflated Lognormal distribution or zero-inflated Poisson Lognormal distribution. The simulation results of zero-inflated models indicated that approximately 2.0% of bulk cooked meat products contaminated with L. monocytogenes according to quantitative analysis. This work provided theoretical reference for the statistical treatment of left-censored L. monocytogenes concentration and served as the essential point for complete risk assessment framework.

Key words: bulk cooked meat, Listeria monocytogenes, zero-inflated model, exposure assessment

中图分类号:

TS251.6+1

孙菀霞金玉琴戴颖秀肖建伟王翔董庆利. 零膨胀模型在散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌定量暴露评估中的应用[J]. 食品科学, 0, (): 0-0.

DONG Qing-Li. Application of Zero-inflated Models in Quantitative Exposure Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Bulk Cooked Meat[J]. FOOD SCIENCE, 0, (): 0-0.

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零膨胀模型在散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌定量暴露评估中的应用

Application of Zero-inflated Models in Quantitative Exposure Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Bulk Cooked Meat

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