Abstract: The quality changes of vacuum packaged sauced ducks at different storage temperatures (4, 25 and 37 ℃) were investigated and shelf life predictive models were established. Experimental results demonstrated that total viable count (TVC), total coliform count, mold count, acid value (AV), peroxide value (POV) and thiobarbituric acid reactive substance (TBARS) value continuously increased during storage at all temperatures, while sensory score decreased. Pearson correlation analysis indicated that mold count and TBARS value had the highest correlation with sensory attributes, which was fitted to the zero-order kinetic model. Arrhenius equation was used to develop shelf life predictive models based on mold count and TBARS value. The activation energy (Ea) and pre-exponential factor (k0) were 16.24 kJ/mol and 179 871.86 for mold count, and 26.33 kJ/mol and 1 347.49 for TBARS value, respectively. The predicted shelf life of sauce duck stored at 4, 25 and 37 ℃ agreed with the actual values. Therefore, mold count and TBARS values could be useful to predict the shelf life of sauced duck.

Key words: sauced duck, shelf life, mold count, thiobarbituric acid reactive substance, prediction model