Abstract: Grey systems theory and method were used here, the article simulated shelf-life entironment at (constant temperature 20℃, and constant humidity 90%, texture profile analysis(TPA) tests in sarcocarp and core, were carried out and the texture parameters studied chewiness is found to be the diagnostic gene of shelf-life property changes, with grey model GM(1,1) and grey forecasting model based on chewiness were thus established. The veracity and applicabilidy of the grey forecasting model of carrot core were confirmed through demonstration and test. This model and method can be taken as an important tool to understand the research results of fruit and vegetable storeage and shelf-life.

Key words: grey systems theory, carrot, shelf-life, texture profile analysis (TPA), property, grey model