Abstract: Predictive microbiology is an important area of food microbiology, and its essence lies in the application of mathematical model to describe the growth and inactivation of microbiology under specific environmental conditions. Predictive microbiology model could not only predict the shelf life of foods to control spoilage organisms, but also contribute to food microbial risk assessment system to reduce the risk of pathogen infection. Therefore, it is of great importance for guaranteeing food safety and improving public health. This review overviews the history of predictive microbiology and analyzes the current research hotspots in predictive microbiology. The emphasis of this review is placed on the state of the art in the application of molecular biology techniques in predictive microbiology, and it also expounds the concept and methodological development of molecular predictive model. The feasibility of the application of other molecular biology techniques in predictive microbiology and the future prospects for the application of molecular predictive model are also discussed. This review is expected to provide a firm theoretical basis for promoting the advancement of predictive microbiology.

Key words: molecular biology techniques, predictive microbiology, risk assessment, food safety, shelf life