Abstract: Objective: This study aimed to analyze food safety risks along the entire food supply chain for the purpose of providing a theoretical basis and technical support to formulate an emergency management strategy. Methods: Based on the data from 2005 through 2014 in China, a food safety risk assessment system is established according to the catastrophe theory in this article. Results: Overall, the past decade has saw a slow reduction in food safety risks; however, for three selected steps of the food supply chain, especially agricultural production and food production and consumption, food safety risks have continuously fluctuated during this decade and tended to rise over the last two years of this period. Conclusion: Improving the legal and regulatory system for food safety, promoting the transformation of decentralized agricultural business model to large-scale production mode, and establishing a compulsory liability insurance system for food safety are key factors to reduce food safety risks and emergencies.

Key words: food safety, supply chain, risk evaluation, catastrophe theory