关键词: 月饼；品质变化；动力学模型；保质期预测；Arrhenius方程

Abstract: Changes in the sensory, physicochemical, microbiological characteristics of space moon cake were monitored during storage at 4, 22, 37 or 47 ℃. The zero-order or first-order kinetic model combined with the Arrhenius equation was used to establish a shelf life prediction model based on the quality indicators of moon cake. We found that the sensory score, pH, hue angle h, brightness (L* value) of space moon cake showed a downward trend over time. The results of electronic tongue analysis showed that the response to sourness increased towards the end of the shelf life, and the electronic nose response to sulfides, nitrogen oxides, organic sulfur, methane, and ethanol increased. Acid value, peroxide value, carbonyl value, a* value, total viable count, total mold and yeast count showed an upward trend over time, but no coliform was detected during storage. Correlation analysis showed that the prediction model based on acid value had the highest accuracy, with an activation energy (Ea) of 44.76 kJ/mol and a pre-exponential factor (k0) of 2.91 × 106, and the relative error between the predicted and measured values was smaller than 10%. The fat oxidation of space moon cake under different storage temperatures and times is the main factor affecting its quality. Its quality changes can be predicted by using the Arrhenius equation. This research can provide a reference for the prediction of the shelf life of space foods.

Key words: moon cake; quality change; kinetic model; shelf life prediction; Arrhenius equation