关键词: 食品安全；危害物；蒙特卡洛仿真；菌落总数；风险评估

Abstract: Wheat is an important food crop, and research on food safety issues regarding wheat is of great significance. In the wheat supply chain, wheat storage has a high risk of producing biological hazards, and the risk level should be effectively monitored for early-warning. Development of risk assessment techniques is being strongly promoted to assess potential health risks associated with direct exposure to biological, chemical or physical hazards in foods. Considering the advantages and disadvantages of the existing qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods and the lack of reasonable risk assessment metrics, a comprehensive risk assessment method for biological hazards was explored based on total bacterial count during wheat storage. First, a dynamic bacterial growth model that can adapt to different growth environments was established. Then, Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantitatively predict the distribution characteristics of total bacterial count during wheat storage. Finally, “hazard degree” was proposed as a metric for risk evaluation and used to quantitatively estimate the risk of total bacterial count during wheat storage. The proposed risk assessment method can provide real-time and intuitive risk assessment results for risk management and decision making authorities, and offer theoretical support for risk prevention and control.

Key words: food safety; hazard; Monte Carlo simulation; total bacterial count; risk assessment