Abstract: In order to predict decay incidence of Chinese bayberry fruits, a prediction model for decay index based on ethanol content were developed. Freshly harvested Chinese bayberry fruits were stored at different temperatures (0, 5, 10, 15 ℃ and 20 ℃). The changes in decay index and ethanol content of bayberry fruits were determined during storage. A kinetic model for decay index with respect to storage time and temperature was developed based on Gompertz equation and Arrhenius equation. A model for decay index based on ethanol content was developed according to the linear relationship between decay index and ethanol content. According to the analysis of both models, a prediction model for decay index based on ethanol content was developed. The relative prediction errors for the kinetic model for decay index and the model for decay index based on ethanol content were 2.69% and 0.74%, respectively. The prediction accuracy was acceptable. Therefore, the decay index of Chinese bayberry fruits can be accurately predicted at storage temperatures from 0 to 20 ℃ by the developed prediction model based on ethanol content, which can provide theoretical supports for the non-destructive inspection of Chinese bayberry fruits.

Key words: nondestructive inspection, Chinese bayberry fruit, ethanol content, decay index, prediction model