关键词: 预测微生物学, 建模, 模型

Abstract: Predictive microbiology is a field of study that combines elements of microbiology, mathematics and statistics todevelop models that describe and predict the growth or decline of microbes under specified environmental conditions. Establish-ing the better mathematical models is the key factor to develop the predictive microbiology. Models can be thought of as havingthree levels: primary level models describe changes in microbial numbers with time, secondary level models show how theparameters of the primary model vary with environmental conditions, and the tertiary level combines the first two types ofmodels with user-friendly application software or expert systems that calculate microbial behavior under the specified conditions.The limitations of models and classification of models were reviewed, and methods of modeling were discussed in this paper.

Key words: predictive microbiology, modeling, models