Abstract:

The effect of separating the uncertainty from variability was studied in the quantitative exposure assessment of
Aeromonas spp. in chilled pork, and deterministic and probability estimate were respectively applied for Aeromonas spp.
growth in chilled pork from retail, transportation to home storage. Results indicated that the deterministic method might
underestimate the dietary risk, and probability estimate could be better for fitting the different possible practical conditions.
Meanwhile, the parameter setting of home storage temperature due to normal distribution was provided as one example to
consider 3 scenarios as follows: total uncertainty, half uncertainty and half variability and total variability. It could be found
that the cumulative probability 20.2% was obtained after separating the uncertainty from variability, compared with 22.1%
without the separation. This study, mainly focused on the methodology of exposure assessment, provided a theoretical
reference for the improvement of accuracy and reliability of further quantitative risk assessment.

Key words: chilled pork, Aeromonas spp., exposure assessment, uncertainty, variability