基于概率分析的玉米食品中黄曲霉毒素B1膳食暴露及风险评估

doi:10.7506/spkx1002-6630-201311006

食品科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (11): 24-27.doi: 10.7506/spkx1002-6630-201311006

基于概率分析的玉米食品中黄曲霉毒素B1膳食暴露及风险评估

郭耀东，陈璐，袁亚宏，岳田利

西北农林科技大学食品科学与工程学院，陕西杨凌 712100

收稿日期:2013-02-28 修回日期:2013-05-03 出版日期:2013-06-15 发布日期:2013-06-03
通讯作者: 岳田利 E-mail:yuetl@nwsuaf.edu.cn
基金资助:
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划

Dietary Exposure and Risk Assessment of Aflatoxin B1 in Corn-based Foods in China Using Probabilistic Approach

GUO Yao-dong，CHEN Lu，YUAN Ya-hong，YUE Tian-li

College of Food Science and Engineering, Northwest A＆F University, Yangling 712100, China

Received:2013-02-28 Revised:2013-05-03 Online:2013-06-15 Published:2013-06-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的：对我国居民通过玉米食品对黄曲霉毒素B1的膳食暴露及其产生的健康风险进行评价。方法：基于Monte Carlo模拟和Bootstrap抽样技术，对我国不同人群通过玉米食品对黄曲霉毒素B1的膳食暴露情况进行非参数概率评估，按照联合国粮农组织和世界卫生组织食品添加剂联合专家委员会推荐的方法对黄曲霉毒素膳食暴露引发的肝癌风险进行评价。结果表明：2～6岁儿童、标准人、城市标准人、农村标准人中玉米食品高消费人群对黄曲霉毒素B1摄入量的高百分位数P99(90%置信区间)分别为29.98(19.03～68.59)、10.18(6.46～23.30)、5.46(3.47～12.49)、13.37(8.49～30.60)ng/(kg·d)，可能引发的肝癌风险分别为0.924(0.587～2.114)、0.314(0.199～0.718)、0.168(0.107～0.385)、0.412(0.262～0.943)例/(105人·a)。结论：我国玉米食品中黄曲霉毒素B1对我国总体肝癌发病率贡献较小，可能引发的公共健康风险较低。

关键词: 黄曲霉毒素B1, 非参数概率评估, 膳食暴露, 风险, Monte Carlo 模拟

Abstract:

Purpose: To assess Chinese residents’ dietary exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) from corn-based foods and corresponding
health risk. Methods: Dietary intake of aflatoxin B1 from corn-based foods in different population groups was simulated by Monte
Carlo simulation and Bootstrap sampling, and health risk associated with AFB1 intake was evaluated by applying a quantitative
cancer potency formula developed by Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. Results: Simulated AFB1 intake
(90% confidence interval) from corn-based foods in different population groups of high corn consumption, 2－6-year-old
children, standard adults, urban standard adults and rural standard adults was 29.98 (19.03－68.59), 10.18 (6.46－23.30),
5.46 (3.47－12.49) ng/(kg•d) and 13.37 (8.49－30.60) ng/(kg•d) at the 99th percentile, respectively; and the evaluated cancer
risk was 0.924 (0.587－2.114), 0.314 (0.199－0.718), 0.168 (0.107－0.385) cancers/(105 persons•a) and 0.412 (0.262－0.943)
cancers/(105 persons•a) . Conclusion: The health risk associated with AFB1 in corn-based foods in China is relatively low.

Key words: aflatoxin B1, nonparametric probabilistic approach, dietary exposure, risk, Monte Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

TS201.6

郭耀东，陈璐，袁亚宏，岳田利. 基于概率分析的玉米食品中黄曲霉毒素B1膳食暴露及风险评估[J]. 食品科学, 2013, 34(11): 24-27.

GUO Yao-dong，CHEN Lu，YUAN Ya-hong，YUE Tian-li. Dietary Exposure and Risk Assessment of Aflatoxin B1 in Corn-based Foods in China Using Probabilistic Approach[J]. FOOD SCIENCE, 2013, 34(11): 24-27.

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基于概率分析的玉米食品中黄曲霉毒素B1膳食暴露及风险评估

Dietary Exposure and Risk Assessment of Aflatoxin B1 in Corn-based Foods in China Using Probabilistic Approach

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